Ratio Magazine :: The Inside Track to East Africa’s Economies - Kenya: How to Invest When the Market Recovers

N.S.E Share Price

...NSE SHARE Index: 4264.66

UP by 3.08 points | Kakuzi Ord.5.00 77.00 -3.00

| Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45 0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55 0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00 0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40 -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00 -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20 0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00 -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00 66.50 0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50 0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 22.25 0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00 0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00 -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75 0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00 0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00 1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25 0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60 -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00 0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00 0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00 0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00 -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00 3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25 0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00 -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00 0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 280.00 6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00 -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50 -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15 -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00 -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00 1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55 0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50 -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 9.40 -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50 0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10 -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15 -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00 0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35 -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00 -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50 -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 200.00 0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT | Kakuzi Ord.5.00 77.00 -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45 0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55 0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00 0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40 -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00 -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20 0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00 -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00 66.50 0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50 0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50 22.25 0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00 0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00 -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75 0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00 0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00 1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25 0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60 -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00 0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00 0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00 0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00 -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00 3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25 0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00 -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00 0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00 280.00 6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00 -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50 -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15 -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00 -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00 1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55 0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50 -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05 9.40 -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50 0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10 -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15 -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00 0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35 -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00 -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50 -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 200.00 0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT

Kenya: How to Invest When the Market Recovers

Friday, 20 March 2009

Now that share prices have sunk so low it is time for investors to start focusing on the shares that will out perform the rest of the market when prices start to recover. It is important to do so now when there is little interest in shares, market prices are still low and decent volumes are available. By Robert Bunyi.

Why small cap companies outperform large caps

During a market rally, the best performing shares are typically those of small cap companies. Small capitalisation refers to those companies whose market values are small compared to the large companies. In terms of percentage price increase, small cap company shares typically rise more than the large cap companies.

There are a number of reasons why this happens:

During a market slump, small cap shares typically fall further than large cap shares due to poor liquidity.
Again due to poor liquidity, in a market rally the small cap stocks rise faster as the available buyers outweigh the sellers.
If the market rally is accompanied by a strong economic performance, the small cap companies will typically report higher earnings growth than larger companies, fuelling demand for their shares.

Which small caps would I recommend?

The last one year has been a very humbling one for equity investors in the stock market. Persistent share price declines have turned dismay into depression.

TPS (Serena), down 54.7% from 1 Apr 08: This hotel chain has been a direct causality of the 2008 election violence and the global economic downturn. The share price has been beaten down from a high of KES90 to KES30 today. The weaker shilling will be a positive fillip for earnings and tourism recovery has started.
CMC Holdings, down 5.3%: The motor vehicle dealer will suffer weak sales growth this year, but the medium trend of increased bank lending will boost sales. Watch out for continuing credit innovations in the sector.
Athi River Mining, down 28.6%: A long term favorite of mine thanks to its cement division. The construction sector should see a slow down in 2009, but this beyond that growth should recover. Remember it is tripling its cement capacity and should see unrestricted sales growth if industry demand grows.
ScanGroup, down 33.5%: Recently listed and most people probably haven’t figured this company out yet. An important strategic sale was concluded in November and the benefits of being part of an international group will come through. Importantly, it removes the question mark of what happens when the key man leaves.
Kenya Oil, down 50.6%: This company has a reputation of quietly toiling within its sector and opportunistically expanding as oil majors leave the regional distribution sector. A conservative balance sheet stance and the pick up in transportation sector have supported steady growth.

Some large caps should also fair very well

Co-operative Bank, down 28.9% from IPO price: This bank closed its equity raise in December, and although it did not fill its offer, it has great potential for investors. It is currently tripling its branch network and has a great brand that should prove useful in its growth aspirations. Watch out for large increases in net interest margins.
Safaricom, down 38% from IPO price: This company is much reviled by first time shareholders but the patient will do well to stick with the company. The weak economy has probably undermined sales and the weaker shilling has introduced new challenges in US dollar priced capital expansion. However, a rebound in the economy particularly in the jua kali sector will inject a healthy boost to sales.

Sound fundamentals: The first principle of investing

At all time do not under estimate the importance of buying shares in companies in a strong market position, low debt levels, high quality independent management and great growth opportunities for growth. Companies without these factors make for very disappointing investments. No matter how low their share prices are, just don’t bother.

About the Author

Robert Bunyi has worked for Equity Stockbrokers, Liquid Africa, Standard Bank of South Africa, Standard Investment Bank, and Renaissance Capital Kenya before setting up Mavuno Financial in June 2008. Robert can be reached on This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it for more information and advice on Kenya’s stock market.

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