The Inside Track to East Africa's Economies
Tezza Solutions
N.S.E Share Price
...NSE SHARE Index: 4264.66  UP by 3.08 points | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT 
Renaissance Capital on CCK Industry Data for March 2012: Buy Rating for Safaricom Print E-mail
Tuesday, 17 July 2012
The Communications Commission of Kenya (CCK) published its industry report for the March 2012 quarter on 10 July 2012. Our view has always been that these industry data releases should be taken with a pinch of salt, and hence our view now that this release is unlikely to be a share price driver for Safaricom with its March 2012 quarter operational data, or for Airtel and Telkom Kenya/Orange (Orange) with its subscriber data, already disclosed at the time of their FY12 (Safaricom and BhartiAirtel) and 1Q12 (Orange) results announcements. We re-iterate our BUY rating for Safaricom with a TP of KES4.40.
  • Voice: Whichever way we look at it, Safaricom’s subscriber market share in voice appears unassailable, but more important, in our view, is its revenue market share, which remains above 80.0% - in 1Q12, Safaricom’s traffic market share was only marginally down QoQ to 77.3% from 77.9%. Safaricom continues to enjoy a premium ARPU over its competitors and hence its revenue market share above 80%. In recent months, increases in retail voice pricing have been implemented in several East African countries, notably Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. We maintain our view that growing revenues are important in support of improving EBITDA margins.
  • Mobile data: Here we refer to unique data only, excluding SMS and other value-added services such as mobile money. Although the CCK data reflect a QoQ decline in Safaricom’s data subscriber numbers, we note that, for full-year FY12 (March year-end), the company registered 31% and 23% YoY growth in subscribers and revenue, respectively. For Orange, we are a bit suspicious of its subscriber growth data as reported by the CCK, as this shows that Orange now has almost the same market share as Airtel and Yu, at about 10%, with Safaricom with about 70%. Of the reported 6.49mn internet subscribers in Kenya, 98.8% is connected via 3G/EDGE/GPRS technologies.
  • Fixed-wireless data: This is another category that we find difficult to analyse, given limited company disclosure and different definitions being applied. According to the CCK, Kenya Data Networks (KDN), majority-owned by JSE-listed Altech [ALT.SJ; TP: ZAc5,025/share; ZAc4,674/share]) is the leading player in Kenya with 24,100 internet (fixed-wireless) subscribers as of 1Q12 (down 6% QoQ). Other companies highlighted in the CCK report and that are familiar to us are Access Kenya (no formal coverage; 14.5% market share), Swift Global (corporate ISP of Altech/Altech Stream East Africa and sister company of KDN; 1.5% market share), iWay Africa (owned by Telkom SA [TKG.SJ; TP: ZAc2,515/share; ZAc1,800/share]; 1.2% market share) and Internet Solutions (division of Dimension Data/NTT, Not listed; 1.1% market share).
  • Safaricom: This leading MNO remains the market leader in both mobile voice and data. It is currently building out capabilities in fixed-mobile convergence, and it would not surprise us if it meaningfully challenges the leading fixed-wireless players for market dominance once it has reliable fibre-optic infrastructure in place. In general, we expect industry margins and returns to improve in 2012 over 2011 and 2010 and for Safaricom to be a major beneficiary of such industry trend. We re-iterate our BUY rating on Safaricom. Our TP of KES4.40/share implies potential upside of 24%. We find the current dividend yield of 6.2% attractive and is supportive of our investment case of improving cash returns, with capital intensity falling slowly, over the medium term.


Republished with kind permission by Renaissance Capital. For more information, contact Johan Snyman on This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .



Share this article with others:
Digg!Reddit!Del.icio.us!Facebook!Slashdot!Netscape!Technorati!StumbleUpon!Newsvine!Furl!Yahoo!Ma.gnolia!Free social bookmarking plugins and extensions for Joomla! websites!
Comments (0)Add Comment

Write comment

busy
 
 
Arqaam Capital
Global Interlink Travel Services Ltd.
African is Cool online investor relations
Follow RatioMagazine on Twitter

Sponsored Links

News Stream