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...NSE SHARE Index: 4264.66  UP by 3.08 points | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT 
RenCap on EABL FY 2012: Cost Pressures Remain Print E-mail
Monday, 27 August 2012
  • FY12 broadly in-line with expectations. EABL delivered top-line growth of 24% in FY12, and operating profit was up 21%. Net attributable earnings were 45% higher, but this was due to exceptional gains from the Tanzania Breweries (TBL) sale and other income. We are concerned that cost pressures and higher finance costs, which we think are likely to persist over the near term, could impair future earnings growth.
  • We think regional volume growth and product mix gains drove the top line, and that stronger growth in spirits (vs beer), and in particular the premium brands, was positive for revenue/hl. Spirits revenue grew 47% vs 21% for beer. EABL’s predominant market, Kenya, delivered steady revenue growth of 16%, but the less developed markets of Uganda and Tanzania boosted the top-line, delivering growth of 38% and 76%, respectively. We note that revenue for Tanzania compares a 12-month period in FY12 with only eight months in FY11.
  • Higher cost base and gearing. While some selective price increases were taken, this was not enough to offset input cost inflation, and the cost of sales grew ahead of revenue (26% YoY). Increased investment in sales and distribution (+31% YoY) further eroded operating profits. Acquisitions of the Kenya Breweries (KBL) and Serengeti Breweries (SBL) stakes were funded with debt, and these significantly increased financing costs. An exceptional gain from the disposal of the TBL stake (KES3.6bn) offset the higher cost base and gearing, and this largely explains attributable earnings growth of 45%.
  • Valuation and rating. We have a SELL rating on EABL, and our TP of KES190 implies 14% potential downside. We have EABL on a 2013E P/E of 16.0x. Our biggest concern is that cost pressures and higher finance expenses may persist over the near term, eroding future earnings growth. We are reviewing our forecasts.

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