The Inside Track to East Africa's Economies
Tezza Solutions
N.S.E Share Price
...NSE SHARE Index: 4264.66  UP by 3.08 points | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT | Kakuzi Ord.5.00  77.00  -3.00 | Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00 16.45  0.00 | Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00 11.55  0.00 | AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00 10.00  0.00 | Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00 49.50 DNT | CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50 10.40  -0.10 | Hutchings Biemer Ltd Ord 5.00 20.25 DNT | Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50  0.00 | Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00 14.20 DNT | Nation Media Group Ord. 2.50 173.00  -1.00 | Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05 4.20  0.05 | Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00 60.00  -0.50 | Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00 39.50 DNT | TPS Eastern Africa (Serena) Ltd Ord 1.00  66.50  0.00 | Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00 14.50 DNT | Barclays Bank Ltd Ord 2.00 69.50  0.50 | Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50  22.25  0.25 | CFC Stanbic Holdings Ltd ord.5.00 79.00  0.00 | Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00 146.00  -1.00 | Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50 28.75  0.25 | Housing Finance Co Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.75 | Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00 187.00  1.00 | Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00 23.25  0.25 | Kenya Re-Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50 10.60  -0.10 | National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 47.00  0.50 | NIC Bank Ltd 0rd 5.00 52.00  0.50 | Olympia Capital Holdings ltd Ord 5.00 5.00  0.05 | Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd 0rd 5.00 76.00  -3.50 | Standard Chartered Bank Ltd Ord 5.00 275.00  3.00 | The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 20.25  0.25 | Athi River Mining Ord 5.00 180.00  -1.00 | B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 150.00 DNT | Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 197.00  0.00 | British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00  280.00  6.00 | Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00 145.00  -1.00 | Crown Berger Ltd 0rd 5.00 32.50  -1.50 | E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50 19.15  -0.40 | E.A.Portland Cement Ltd Ord 5.00 100.00  -3.00 | East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00 181.00  1.00 | Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00 2.55  0.00 | KenGen Ltd Ord. 2.50 15.50  -0.05 | KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05  9.40  -0.10 | Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50 22.50  0.50 | Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00 8.10  -0.30 | Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00 6.15  -0.05 | Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 28.00  0.25 | Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00 10.35  -0.10 | City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 186.00 DNT | Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 50.00  -4.50 | Express Ltd Ord 5.00 7.50  -0.20 | Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00  200.00  0.00 | Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 125.00 DNT | Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 3.00 DNT | Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 305.00 DNT 
News Analysis: Positive IMF Kenya Review Contrasts with Latest Inflation, GDP Data Print E-mail
Thursday, 03 October 2013
The IMF’s statement on its sixth and last review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement from January 2011 is upbeat as usual: Reforms introduced over the past three years are paying off, Kenya’s economy has been resilient to external shocks like the drought and stagnating demand in traditional exports as well as tourism, and monetary policy has successfully brought inflation down. The recent upswing in consumer price inflation – from 6.67% year on year on August to 8.29% in September 2013 – was largely driven by the changes in the VAT regime, so this is expected to level off.

Perhaps a little more surprising is the Fund’s comment on Kenya’s public finances and fiscal discipline. No mention of the country’s rising public sector wage bill, a large chunk of which will go to its MPs who are busy trying to change their classification as public officers so that they can, again, and legally, determine their income themselves. That leaves limited funds for teachers, healthcare workers and similar public employees, but several strikes have also pushed up the wage bill in these areas.

And then there is, surprisingly, this statement: 'Structural reforms have made progress to prepare for the devolution process, notably through a strengthened regulatory environment for public financial management at both national and county level.' Most of the news since the establishment of county governments has been disastrous: pie-in-the-sky with massive deficits, shopping for cars, houses and spending on foreign trips, little to no evidence that the bulk of county governments have the capacity to plan and manage their finances.

Just released GDP Q2 figures show a slowdown from 5.2% in Q1 to 4.3%, most likely related to uncertainties around the elections. From Bloomberg: 'Agriculture, which accounts for a fifth of GDP, grew by 5 percent in the second quarter from 8.1 percent in the first quarter, while construction slowed to 6.7 percent from 13.3 percent. The leisure industry, including restaurants and hotels, contracted 11.4 percent after shrinking 15.8 percent. Tourist arrivals to Kenya dropped 12 percent to 495,978 in the first half from a year earlier, according to government figures.'

Tourism figures are worrying, not the least because the health of this sector affects other sectors such as food production, transport and overall employment. If we factor in the impact of the Westgate attack, then the GDP growth rate for the remainder of the year will be similar. This can still be affected by the impact of adverse weather on agriculture, and the VAT increases will affect consumer spending. However, Westgate is a short-term issue, and 4-4.5% GDP growth, similar to last year’s 4.6%, is quite decent, even if it falls short of the Kenyan government’s forecast of 5.5-6%.



Share this article with others:
Digg!Reddit!Del.icio.us!Facebook!Slashdot!Netscape!Technorati!StumbleUpon!Newsvine!Furl!Yahoo!Ma.gnolia!Free social bookmarking plugins and extensions for Joomla! websites!
Comments (0)Add Comment

Write comment

busy
 
 
Arqaam Capital
Global Interlink Travel Services Ltd.
African is Cool online investor relations
Follow RatioMagazine on Twitter

Sponsored Links

News Stream